Long run NGDP growth and long term nominal interest rates
If you had to write down a simple model of long-term nominal interest rates, you might start with long run expected NGDP growth, although as we’ll see it’s actually a lot more complicated. Here are...
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Demystifying NeoFisherism
James Bullard has a new paper out discussing the NeoFisherian perspective on interest rates. According to the NeoFisherian view, holding interest rates at a low level for a long period of time will...
View ArticleRisk off
At this point (midnight) the global economy has been hit by a negative monetary shock, one of the biggest in years. Here’s what to watch tomorrow: 1. Does the crisis show signs of spreading to the...
View ArticleMake sure you follow the right crowd
Over at Econlog, I have a post explaining why Brexit is not about Britain. That’s clearly not the conventional view, if you read the pundits. Philo asked this question: Scott, you really do think for...
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Trump: Even worse than we thought
Over the past year, I’ve been stunned to discover that Trump seems to have absolutely no redeeming qualities. Even Nixon was intelligent. Herbert Hoover was a highly competent manager. Trump seems...
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The New Trump (likes Muslims, Mexicans and trade deals)
No, this is not from The Onion: Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said on Saturday that he wouldn’t characterize his immigration policies as including “mass deportations,”...
View ArticleSliding back to the gold standard?
When the Bank of International Settlements was created in 1930, it was hoped that it would provide a progressive voice on monetary policy, pushing back against the passivity of the Fed and the Bank of...
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Let’s improve the way we report exchange rate movements
This post is motivated by recent headlines suggesting that the Chinese yuan has depreciated in recent days. Here’s an example: China’s yuan weakens to 5-1/2 low as c.bank tolerates depreciation This...
View ArticleThe Brexit shock and its aftershocks
I just spent some time looking at stock market reactions around the world, over the past three trading days. I’m too lazy to compute all the exact numbers, but I’ll give you a rough sense of what I...
View ArticleTeebs was right
So the man who just last weekend was the odds on favorite to be the next PM is out. Someone going under the moniker “Teebs” saw it coming 5 days ago, and left these prescient remarks in the comment...
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